How Much Crime is in Lake Forest? - Part 2 (The Facts)

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Part 1 of this blog was entitled "How Safe is Lake Forest?" because the City constantly tells us (incorrectly) that we are one of the "safest cities in the U.S." But after reading the first blog, you know more than our City Manager and our City Council members - namely, that the word "safe" refers to a perception and the correct way to examine crime is to look at the crime statistics.

Previously we noted that based on the CQP report, the City’s claim that “Lake Forest has consistently been identified as one of the safest cities in America…” was false. We noted that we consistently had more crime than the other 2 cities in South County that were in the CQP report, but since the other 7 cities in South County weren’t covered by the CQP report, it was difficult to get a good perspective.

How do we compare to our neighbors with respect to crime? Is our crime rate really as low as our City officials have led us to believe? Are they lying?

My study examined crime statistic data from the Orange County Sheriff’s Department (OCSD) who provided information on 9 cities under their jurisdiction in South County. It looked at Part 1 and Part 2 crimes (as defined by FBI Uniform Crime Reporting) for a total of 29 indices, and it looked at crime rate per 100,000 and clearance rate. Data from 2008 and 2009 were examined because this was the latest data readily available.

(You might wonder – “why has the new Sheriff stopped sharing this vital information with the public?” – but that’s a topic for a different blog)

The advantage of studying only cities using OCSD is that we are dealing with the same culture. IOW, methods of reporting and responding are standardized across OCSD.  The problem with using data from cities that use different police authorities is that their methods of reporting and/or responding may be different, so that it becomes difficult to compare across municipalities.

Part 1 Crimes

Part 1 crimes are defined as homicide, forcible rape, assault, robbery, auto theft, larceny, and burglary. These are considered the more serious crimes.  Lake Forest reported approximately 1,300 Part 1 crimes per 100,000 people.

Compared to the 9 cities served by OCSD in South County, Lake Forest had the 7th highest crime rate in 2009 and 6th in 2008.

This is so shocking, given what our city officials have been telling us, it bears repeating - Compared to the 9 cities served by OCSD in South County, Lake Forest had the 7th highest crime rate in 2009 and 6th in 2008.

Here’s the crime rates for Part 1 (major) crimes per 100,000 for 2009 (last date available) for cities under OCSD

• Laguna Woods, 632
• Rancho Santa Margarita, 860
• Laguna Niguel, 1,083
• Aliso Viejo, 1,146
• Mission Viejo, 1,278
• San Clemente, 1,340
• LAKE FOREST, 1,370
• Laguna Hills, 1,923
• San Juan Capistrano, 4,488

Bottom line – generally speaking we have more cases of Part 1 crime on a population basis than our neighbors do.

Part 2 Crimes

Part 2  crimes are defined as vehicular manslaughter, assault, forgery & counterfeiting, embezzlement & fraud, stolen property crimes, vandalism, weapons laws violation, prostitution, sex offenses, offenses against child, narcotics offenses, liquor violations, drunkenness, DUI, disorderly conduct, vagrancy, loitering, runaways, gambling, and misc. Though obviously any crime is serious, these crimes are considered less serious than Part 1 crimes.

Lake Forest averaged about 3,000 Part 2 crimes per 100,000 people. The city had the 7th highest crime rate in 2009 and 8th in 2008. Here is the data, based on crimes for every 100,000 people in 2009 -

• Laguna Woods, 583
• Laguna Niguel, 1,872
• Mission Viejo, 2.062
• Rancho Santa Margarita, 2,164
• Aliso Viejo, 2,191
• San Clemente, 2,324
• LAKE FOREST, 2,786
• Laguna Hills, 2,908
• San Juan Capistrano, 10,559

Bottom line – compared to our neighbors, we have a lot more Part 2 crimes in our city.

Part 1 and Part 2 Combined

In terms of Part 1 and Part 2 crimes, per 100,000 people, Lake Forest has significantly higher crime rates when compared to most of the 9 South County cities covered by Orange County Sheriff’s Department. In fact, combining Part 1 and Part 2 crimes for 2009, Lake Forest had 4,156 crimes per 100,000 people, a figure that was 7th out of 9 cities. Cities that had fewer Part 1 and Part 2 crimes per 100,000 people were (in rank order): Laguna Woods, Laguna Niguel, Rancho Santa Margarita, Aliso Viejo, Mission Viejo, and San Clemente.

Summary

Compared to our neighbors, whether or not you look at Part 1 and Part 2 crimes together or separately, Lake Forest has more crime than most of our neighbors.

This is a FAR DIFFERENT story than the story the City has been telling us, namely, that we are one of the “safest” cities in the U.S. We are not one of the most crime free cities in the U.S. and we are not even one of the most crime free cities in South County!

Don't rush down to the gun shop just yet. The fact that we are not as "safe" as we've been led to believe, and the fact that most every other city in our area has a lower crime rate than we have, doesn't mean that we live in a dangerous area. Compared to many parts of the country, South County is relatively crime free, which is one of the reasons many of us chose to live here. That being said, we have certainly been misled into believing that our crime rate is much less than it actually is.

Crime rates are only one facet of the picture. Next we’ll look at Clearance rate. How well does the Sheriff’s Department solve crimes in our city? Following that we'll look at a major threat to the welfare of our city, and then I want to look at the implications of this study and offer some suggestions.