Is Lake Forest For Sale? Part 2—Election 2012

This is the second in a multi-part series on corruption in Lake Forest. In case you missed Part 1, click here.

2012 was the most expensive election in the history of Lake Forest. Putting aside the 2010 election, more money was spent in 2012 than almost all the other elections combined.

How Much Did We Spend?

Here are the final totals as reported:

• Adam Nick - $59,449.54
• Dwight Robinson - $38,295.94
• Terry Anderson - $26,661.27
• Kathy Zechmeister - $23,349.00
• Jim Gardner - $7,889.70
• Marcia Rudolph - $6,998.63
• Ken Carrell - $2,683.00

That’s $165,327. In the past, Lake Forest elections rarely saw even half this amount being spent.

This figure is high enough. But we also need to include the $54,000 + spent by third parties on the election. For example, The Republican Party (RPOC) spent $31,187 on the Lake Forest election - $10,970.13 to support Adam Nick, $10,970.12 to support Dwight Robinson, $8,107.41 to oppose Marcia Rudolph, and $1,140.11 to oppose Terry Anderson.

Another group, calling themselves “Taxpayers for Safer Neighborhoods” (TSN) spent $23,506 - $5,625.35 to support Adam Nick, $6,435.35 to support Dwight Robinson, $8,817.93 to oppose Marcia Rudolph, and $2,628.00 to oppose Terry Anderson.

I’ve uploaded some of this campaign literature so you can study it.

When you factor these amounts into the equation, the total amount spent on the election was $220,731 with $82,337 in support of Adam Nick and $61,993 in support of Dwight Robinson.

Where Did All This Money Come From?

A good proportion came from the candidates themselves. Here’s the breakdown. The actual amount is listed in parentheses and the % represents the % of all the monies that were spent (including 3rd parties) -

• Ken Carrell – 85% ($2273)
• Jim Gardner - 78% ($5222)
• Kathy Zechmeister – 74% ($18,250)
• Terry Anderson – 65% ($13,019)
• Adam Nick – 63% ($52,000)
• Dwight Robinson – 24% ($15,000)
• Marcia Rudolph – 0

The candidates themselves along with their spouses and companies raised $105,764 or 48% of the total. So, where did the other 52% come from?

Readers of my articles will know that the most significant portion of candidate campaign contributions comes from real estate interests and developers. In 2012 it was no different. Here’s the breakdown of real estate interests who spent money on our election and whom they spent their money on:

Trumark Homes (including Foothill Village, BIA, and Richard Goacher) - $59,500 as follows

• $22,500 to fund TSN (see above for details)
• $22,500 to fund RPOC (see above for details)
• $5,000 to fund TSN (from BIA)
• $5,000 to Marcia Rudolph
• $2,500 to Dwight Robinson (from Richard Goacher)
• $1,000 to Dwight Robinson (from BIA)
• $500 to Dwight Robinson
• $250 to Terry Anderson
• $250 to Kathy Zechmeister

Brookfield Homes (including Dave Bartlett) - $21,000

• $20,000 to fund RPOC (see above for details)
• $500 to Kathy Zechmeister
• $500 to Marcia Rudolph

California Real Estate Political Action Committee (CREPAC) - $3,000

• $1,500 to Terry Anderson
• $1,000 to Dwight Robinson
• $500 to Kathy Zechmeister

Bottom line: a minimum of $83,500 (I could trace) or 38% of the money spent in Lake Forest can be tracked to developer interests alone.

Where did the remaining 14% come from?

CR&R Waste and Recycling Services - $2,000

• $1,000 to Terry Anderson
• $1,000 to Dwight Robinson

Mobile Home Interest Groups (including El Toro Mobile Estates and MHETPAC) – $2000

• $750 to Terry Anderson
• $750 to Kathy Zechmeister
• $500 to Dwight Robinson

Transfer from Republic election committees (EC) - $3100

• $2,000 to Dwight Robinson from Don Wagner EC
• $500 to Dwight Robinson from Scott Voigts EC
• $300 to Terry Anderson from Peter Herzog EC
• $300 to Kathy Zechmeister from Peter Herzog EC

Companies and/or people with contracts with the City or requesting action by the City not Otherwise Listed above - $2300

• $1,000 to Dwight Robinson (Sue Waltman)
• $400 to Marcia Rudolph (Sue Waltman)
• $400 to Marcia Rudolph (Waltman Fodor Properties)
• $500 to Dwight Robinson (Athens Services)

Here’s the final breakdown:

• $105,764 (48%) from candidates and their family
• $83,500 (38%) from Developers
• $3,100 (1.4%) transfers from other committees.
• $2,300 (1%) from “vested interests” not otherwise listed
• $2,000 (1%) from mobile home interest groups
• $2,000 (1%) from CREPAC

Where Was This Money Spent?

In my previous article, based on data submitted through the middle of October, we found that some candidates spent little, if any money in Lake Forest while others spent a considerable amount. The final submissions did not change these findings, the only exception being that Ken Carrell finally submitted his forms, and his submission showed that he spent $0 in Lake Forest. Here are the percentages of money spent in Lake Forest for each of the candidates:

• Jim Gardner – 77%
• Kathy Zechmeister – 54%
• Terry Anderson – 15%
• Marcia Rudolph – 15%
• Dwight Robinson – 3%
• Adam Nick – 2.5%
• Ken Carrell – 0%

What’s particularly worrisome is that the big spenders, Nick and Robinson, and their third party supporters, spent less than $3000 of the $143,000 spent on their campaign, in Lake Forest. And both of these candidates campaigned on the basis of bringing more businesses to Lake Forest.

How Much Did a Vote Cost?

The final voting figures were:

• Nick – 10,279 (21.9%)
• Robinson – 9,381 (19.9%)
• Anderson – 7,183 (15.3%)
• Gardner – 5,894 (12.5%)
• Rudolph – 5,675 (12.1%)
• Zechmeister – 5,420 (11.5%)
• Carrell – 3,207 (6.8%)

So taking the final amounts spent and the votes received, here is the cost per vote:

• Nick – $8.01
• Robinson – $6.60
• Anderson – $3.71
• Gardner – $1.33
• Rudolph – $1.23
• Zechmeister – $4.30
• Carrell –

(These figures do not include the amounts spent against candidates, nor can Carrell’s amount be computed since he still hasn’t submitted a correct final statement.)

Generally speaking, the rank order of vote getting and vote spending is identical, the only exception being Kathy Zechmeister who spent more than three of her competitors but placed below them in the votes.

Lessons from the Election

Now that we have sufficient background on the election and the money flows, our next article will focus on the two developers. But before we go, let’s look at the lessons.

1. Getting elected is expensive.
2. The more you spend, the better you do.
3. It took more than $60,000 to get elected in Lake Forest in 2012, almost double what it took in 2010.
4. Developers are the main outside contributors to city campaigns, and with other real estate interests, they provide nearly 40% of the finances.