The frightening picture above is a compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicle on fire. Because of an ill-considered decision by the Planning Commission, this may be happening on El Toro Rd. in the near future. About 10 days ago, the Planning Commission (PC) approved building an unmanned CNG fueling station on El Toro Rd. That decision was based on inadequate information supplied by the applicant and an inadequate review by the PC and City staff.
CNG VEHICLES EXPLOSIONS ARE NOT UNCOMMON
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CNG vehicle explosions are not uncommon. In fact, they are so common that there is now a specialty in the legal area for “CNG Injury Attorneys”. In Pakistan, where they have the most CNG vehicles, estimates are that thousands of people die every year from explosions. Natural Gas Watch has an ongoing series called “This Week in Natural Gas Leaks and Explosions”.
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WE DON’T KNOW THE RISKS
The risks to the City from CNG vehicle explosions are directly proportional to the amount of CNG traffic generated by the proposed station. The applicant failed to provide a valid indicator of how much traffic will come into the City as a result of the station opening. Absent a valid indicator, the City has no basis to judge the risks.
The traffic study submitted by the applicant and accepted by the PC and the staff used a CNG fueling station in Santa Ana (SA) as the model to project usage in our City. But there are few valid comparisons between the two stations. For example –
· The SA station is on Maple Street which is a very minor street in Santa Ana, while the proposed station will be on the main street in Lake Forest.
. The SA station is miles away from the two major freeways (5 and 405) while the proposed station is right next to the only freeway (5) in the area.
· There are 9 additional CNG stations within 10 miles of the SA station, whereas there will only be 2 additional stations within 10 miles of the proposed Lake Forest station. CNG vehicles within a 10 mile radius of the SA station have 10 choices to make, but within 10 miles of the proposed Lake Forest station they will have only 3 choices to make.
Looking at the data, there can be little question that the proposed LF station will get a lot more traffic than the SA station because the LF station is (a) closer to major freeways, (b) more convenient to exit and enter the freeways, and (c) has much fewer competition within 10 miles of the station.
THE LOCATION IS OF STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE
The applicant wants to exit the traffic onto El Toro Rd. El Toro Rd. is a major thoroughfare for the City. It is an access route for people from Laguna Hills, Laguna Woods, Laguna Beach, and Aliso Viejo to enter the City for shopping. It is used by Lake Forest and Mission Viejo residents to access the I-5.
Almost all CNG fueling stations in Southern California are located on minor streets, many of them dead ends. Only one station (Valero in Anaheim) is located on a main thoroughfare (Harbor Blvd), and even this one exception is not located in an area as important to their City as El Toro is to our City.
The applicant believes that 30% of the CNG vehicles will exit onto El Toro and 70% will exit on Bridger, but they provide no valid rationale for this assumption. The authors fail to note that exiting from Bridger and turning left requires the CNG vehicles to cross several lanes of traffic in order to get into the right hand turn lane (to enter I-5). This makes Bridger a less attractive exit option, especially for drivers who are not familiar with the area.
Exiting traffic onto El Toro Rd. is a mistake.
TRAFFIC ON EL TORO IS ALREADY CHALLENGED
The area into which CNG vehicles will be exiting is a few hundred feet from Bridger Rd. on El Toro going west. This area is notorious for the many lane changes made by people seeking to enter the Bank of America parking lot, enter the I-5, or make the U-turn at Swartz Rd. The average car makes 3 to 4 lane changes in this short space.
The proposed exit on El Toro is at the Chase Bldg, just a few feet from the intersection with Bridger. Anyone who has ever exited from there knows you hold your life in your hands trying to get onto the street because cars are lining up in the two right-hand lanes in order to enter the I-5. CNG vehicles because they have less acceleration, will have even greater problems successfully merging with oncoming traffic, thus increasing the risks of a rear-end explosion.
See the photos taken at 2 pm on Monday Sept 30 for an idea of what non-peak hour traffic looks like. Now imagine you’re in an under powered CNG vehicle.
SUMMARY
The PC approved an unmanned CNG fueling station with exits on Bridger Rd. and El Toro Rd. The traffic study used by the PC had serious flaws unexamined by the PC, and given the potential danger from CNG vehicle explosions, the lack of valid data projecting the usage of the station, the strategic location of the exit onto El Toro Rd., and the existing traffic challenges in that area, the Council should disallow the exit on El Toro Rd. and allow the applicant to proceed using the Bridger Rd. exit. Conditional on the applicant submitting a valid traffic study, the PC or the Council could re-consider allowing the applicant to use the El Toro Rd. exit.
PS - For those of you interested, there is a detail 18 page report available. E-mail me at DrJGardner@gmail.com to receive a copy.
