Aliso Elementary, Linda Vista Elementary, Trabuco Elementary May Close, District Consultant Says

, and Trabuco Elementary may be targeted for closure due to budget cuts and declining enrollment, a consulting firm told a Saddleback Valley Unified School District committee Tuesday night.

The district's board of education, , asked Irvine-based consulting firm DecisionInsite to explore the possibility of closing up to four schools in the district.

In a report to the Facilities Advisory Committee Tuesday night, DecisionInsite's Dean Waldfogel outlined how his firm came to the preliminary conclusion that Aliso, Loma Linda and Trabuco elementaries should be considered for closure.

Schools with enrollments of fewer than about 500 students total, fewer than 450 students from their enrollment areas, with older original construction and the least-recent modernizations were analyzed, according to the PowerPoint presentation Waldfogel showed the committee. The "final test," according to the presentation, was making sure the shuttered schools' students could be absorbed by other nearby schools and home schools.

It's a matter of keeping costs low, he said.

"Closing schools is never a pretty thing, but the state education budget is probably in its biggest crisis in 100 years," Waldfogel said in an interview Wednesday. "Everyone is looking to protect instructions however they can, and part of the way to do that is avoid overhead costs."

Any closures would require the reassignment of some school attendance areas. The firm based its recommendation on forecasts for future district enrollment, factoring in the local population boost that may result from the planned construction of homes in Lake Forest.

If closed, Lake Forest's Aliso Elementary would shift students to Santiago, Olivewood and Rancho Canada elementaries, according to the firm's report. About 133 students presently enrolled at Aliso could go to Santiago, 111 to Olivewood and 20 to Rancho Canada.

In Mission Viejo, Linda Vista Elementary would send students to Lomarena, Valencia, San Joaquin and De Portola elementaries if shuttered. The number of students shifted to Lamorena could be 191, to Valencia 68, to San Joaquin 88 and to De Portola 159. In the case of Valencia, relocatable classrooms may need to be added to the campus to handle the boost in enrollment, according to the presentation.

Trabuco Elementary in unincorporated Trabuco Canyon could send 3 students to Portola Hills Elementary and about 50 to Robinson Ranch Elementary.

The three schools could be closed independently of one another. The board of education may decide to close some or none of the recommended schools.

The Facilities Advisory Committee, made up of a parent from each school in the district, discussed the firm's preliminary findings and asked for more information about enrollment at other schools in the district.

"They asked very good questions," Waldfogel said of the committee. "There seemed to be an understanding of the overall problem that the district has in terms of wanting to protect programs and instruction as best they can."

The committee did not vote on the firm's findings, but may do so when it meets again Monday.

"They were asked at this point to see whether they could bring anything to the table," district business director Jeff Starr said of the committee. "The F.A.C., being parents in the community, know more of the pockets of culture and concerns that sometimes an outside groups might not know."

After Monday's meeting, the next step in the process will come when the district's 7/11 Committee—named for a statute that specifies such a committee must have between seven and 11 members—holds hearings on which campuses and properties the district could identify as surplus. That committee would make recommendations about whether to sell, lease or keep such properties. District staff would then incorporate that input and make a recommendation about school closures to the Board of Education.

The district's finances are predicted to worsten. Its staff projects a $9 million budget deficit for the 2011-12 school year, and in 2012-13, that deficit could rise to $34 million, according to Geri Partida, assistant superintendent for business. Those deficits do not include the loss of an additional $330 per student, or $10 million, which the district faces are not approved.

On Monday, Saddleback Valley Unified was identified as one of 110 school districts across the state that are in serious financial trouble in a report released by State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tom Torlakson. The district received “qualified certification,” meaning that the state believes the district may not be able to pay its bills over the next two years, the report said.

District officials estimate they are losing $3.8 million annually due to declining enrollment caused largely by the aging of the region's population. On average, closing an elementary campus saves the district $500,000 in a year, said Starr.

If schools are closed, teaching staff and academic programs at those schools are often kept intact at remaining campuses, Starr said. Administrative positions at the shuttered campuses, though, are often eliminated.

The district shuttered O’Neill Elementary in 2009 due to declining enrollment, the outcome of a contentious process that angered some Mission Viejo parents and drew a failed lawsuit from the Mission Viejo City Council. The district also closed La Tierra Elementary School that year.

The next Facility Advisory Committee meeting, where the closure proposal will be further discussed, is on Monday, March 28 at 7 p.m. in the board room at .

contributed reporting to this story.

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