How Much Crime is in Lake Forest? - Part 3 (Summary and Implications)

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In our last blog we looked at the crime rate for Part 1 (serious) and Part 2 (less serious) crimes in Lake Forest and we compared our crime rate with 8 other South County cities under the OC Sheriff. To complete the picture, let's look at clearance rates (ie., solving crime).

Clearance Rate

In terms of clearance rates, in 2009, Lake Forest ranked 5th in clearing Part 1 crimes and 4th in clearing Part 2 crimes. In 2008, Lake Forest ranked 4th in Part 2 and 6th in Part 1. So, compared to our neighbors, we are about average in terms of our clearance rate.

How consistent is the clearance rate? Clearance rates for Lake Forest for the 10 year period 2000 to 2009 for Part 1 crimes averages about 21% and the clearance rate for Part 2 crimes averages about 68%. From year to year the rates are generally stable, although the clearance rate for 2000 to 2004 for Part 1 (19%) and Part 2 (65%) is lower than 2005 to 2009 (23%, 70%). IOW - we're getting better, though marginally so.

Summary

• Lake Forest reported approximately 1,300 Part 1 crimes per 100,000 people. Out of 9 South County cities we had the 7th highest crime rate in 2009 and 6th highest in 2008.

• Lake Forest reported approximately 3,000 Part 2 crimes per 100,000 people. Out of 9 South County cities we had the 7th highest crime rate in 2009 and 8th highest in 2008.

• Combining Part 1 and Part 2 crimes for 2009, Lake Forest had 4,156 crimes per 100,000 people, giving us the 7th highest crime rate out of 9 South County cities

• In terms of clearance rates, in 2009, Lake Forest ranked 5th in clearing Part 1 crimes and 4th in clearing Part 2 crimes. In 2008, Lake Forest ranked 4th in Part 2 and 6th in Part 1.

Putting it all together, among the 9 cities served by OCSD, Lake Forest had one of the highest rates of crime and only an average rate of solving those crimes. It’s clear that any claim that Lake Forest is among the 8th safest cities in the U.S. is incorrect. 

Implications

There are several things to think about when looking at the results of this study.

1. City officials and council members portrayed the city in a more favorable light than the data suggest.

City officials and council members consistently talk about Lake Forest as “one of the safest cities in the U.S.” citing the CQP report, despite a detailed letter from me a few years ago informing them of the errors they made interpreting the study and communicating the results to the public. You can e-mail me at GardnerForCouncil@gmail.com for a copy of that letter. So there really is no excuse for their continued distortion of the truth. For me, this raises the question – “If they will distort the truth about such an important topic as our safety, what else aren’t they telling us?”

(BTW - City Council candidate Terry Anderson makes this same claim in his campaign literature - "Lake Forest consistently ranks as one of the safest cities in America")

2. We are not as safe as they say we are.

One of my major concerns with the misleading message that we are one of the safest cities in the U.S. is that this might lead people to behave in a manner that works against their self-interests. If you think you are in one of the safest cities in the U.S., you might not lock your car doors, or your windows. You might leave the door to your home open, or let newspapers pile up on your doorstep when you are away for a few days.

But we’re not in one of the safest cities in the U.S. We aren’t even in one of the safest cities in South County, so we really need to be vigilant. Don’t panic. Don’t go out and buy a sawed-off shotgun. But maybe you should think twice about your habits and maybe a little extra watchfulness would be in order. Perhaps one of the reasons our crime rate is so high, compared to our neighbors, is that we have been lulled into a false sense of security by city officials. This is far more disturbing than the findings themselves.

Action Plan

What can you do?

1. Alert yourself

Are you aware that you can sign up to get alerts about crime in your area? Go to http://spotcrime.com/ and enter your e-mail and they will send you a daily summary along with a map showing you exactly where the action is.

2. Take Precautions

We are not as safe as they told us we are. So take precautions. Talk to Police services and they can give you tips on crime prevention. Ask for an officer to come out and inspect your home and give you advice on how to be more secure. If you belong to an HOA (most of us do), ask your Board of Directors about security in your area.

Next time we are going to look at an even greater meance to our well being than the misperception that we are "one of the safest cities in the US." Stay tuned.